Uncertainty in the estimation of the spectral significant wave height and energetic wave period from wave propagation models - case of Valparaiso region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-28132016000100002Keywords:
waves, uncertainty, modelling, spectral significant wave, energetic wave periodAbstract
This contribution shows the need to quantify the uncertainty in the wave propagation modelling, a technique frequently used in coastal engineering projects. The magnitude and variability of the errors in estimates of the significant wave height and the energetic wave period was evaluated using modelling and measurements. The modelling of significant wave heights showed mean absolute relative errors between 8% and 14% with respect to measurements depending on which model and deep water wave boundary conditions (buoy measurements or hindcasting) were used. A more detailed analysis indicated that when hindcast data was used, mean errors reached up to 28%, and that for the highest wave heights (Hm0 > 3 m) the confidence decreasedfinding that the 95% approximate level for the absolute relative error reached up to 40%. Modelled energetic wave periods were generally over estimated and mean errors increased up to 34% when hindcast deep water wave data was used. The level of uncertainty found in this study indicate that in Chile it is necessary to have a long term wave database and a quantification of the accuracy in measurements and wave studies for wave power availability and coastal design assessments.
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