Probabilistic evaluation of sands liquefaction in Piura city in Peru
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-28132017000200061Keywords:
liquefaction probability, Taylor's series, Monte Carlo simulationsAbstract
A method to estimate liquefaction is the one proposed by Seed et al. (1985). This method depends on the cyclic resistance ratio CRR and the cyclic shear stress ratio CSR to calculate the safety margin. Frequently, this measure of safety is assumed deterministic and it is not contemplated the uncertainty of the seismic loads and soils resistance properties. When the probabilistic approach is implemented, often, probability density distribution functions for CRR, CSR and coefficients of variation of the soils properties are assumed by some authors. This paper presents a procedure applied to the city of Piura in Peru that includes the uncertainty of all random variables for liquefaction calculations. The information obtained from the area of study provides sufficient data to develop a complete analysis of uncertainty. In order to perform the probabilistic analysis, it was used the FORM and Monte Carlo methods. The maximum liquefaction probability is 9.5% and the random variables with more influence in the result for high uncertainty and functional form in the safety margin are N of the SPT and ground water level.
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